This is a temporary page. It has nothing to do with music. I needed a page to park information I’m sharing with other people and didn’t feel like paying for another blog….. You are welcome to wonder over to the music pages, but that’s not my intent with this.
The spreadsheets below are updated daily around 21:00 hours. It tracks the rate at which the daily number of COVID-19 deaths in the US is increasing, and hopefully soon decreasing. I’m looking at the momentum the virus has, the slow down in the rate of increase when it happens, the level off and eventually the decrease. The main source for my data is HERE. The average increase factor, and the average days to double are a 10 day average. the numbers in all green below are based on the last calculated 10 day average projected forward.There’s an entry for each day, starting at the bottom with 3-31-2020
NOTE: Sometimes numbers dribble in to the source data after 21:00 which can lead to discrepancies. They self consolidate the next day as they get included with the new total. It may skew the data somewhat day to day, but over time it all smooths out.
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12/4/2020
And still slowing, in fact slowing fast….. 1524 deaths, 7.4% At this point I am going to paraphrase Farr’s law that says it will now decelerate faster than it accelerated. My work is done here. I’ll leave it up for a little and then take it down. Should things change I will be back at it.
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4/11/2020
There were no adjustments for previous days.
Todays count, 1830 is the lowest in 5 days. (If it doesn’t get adjusted upward tomorrow). At 9.8% the increase is the lowest to date, and the first single digit ever. The 10 day average is still trailing but now down to 15%. Based on that there is still a theoretical 100K mark in April, but my opinion is that it will slow to a low enough number that we won’t get there. What the end number will be is a guess at this point. But, the virus is losing steam fast. At this point I am suspending the state spreadsheet. It’s a lot of work, and the slowing is removing the need to do so. If you are interested in a specific state follow this link and do the math…..
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4/10/2020
Todays death count, 2036 is the largest daily number yet, but again, as a percentage it is lower than ever: 12.2% This brings the ten day average down to 16.6
The virus still has serious momentum, and the numbers are getting exponentially larger but it is also still slowing. A theoretical 100K number at the current average would be April 21. Based on todays rate of increase it would be April 24th. Not long ago it was April 13th.
States by rate of increase of reported deaths, descending.
States by rate of increase of reported cases, descending.
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4/9/2020
Small increase adjustments were made on past days. 1872 people died over the last 24 hours, at 12.7% the lowest we’ve seen in a long time. The 10 day average has dipped below 19%. It is still slowing, although a small percentage of a large number, is a large number.
State wise there are some hot spots growing…… NY is definitely on the back side.
States sorted by rate of increase of deaths:
States sorted by rates of increases of cases…. (As reported….)
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4/8/2020
I’ve added another decimal to the rate of increase and its average. Nuances are getting finer. Yesterday’s count was adjusted upwards slightly. The rates hold.
Today’s count, 1895 is actually lower than yesterdays, and reflects an increase of only 14.8% (We may see that increase later tonight but still). This brings the 10 day average down .2% Holding steady, in fact we’re going to drop the last of the higher rate days in the next three days so the average should start coming down.
States sorted by rate of increase of deaths.
States sorted by rates of increase of cases (as reported…..)
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4/7/2020
Todays increase, 1924 is the largest number to date. At 18% it is also 5% more than yesterday, but still less than the previous 21% average, which brings the current average down to 19%…… the virus is holding steady, which still means we are going to see some big numbers this week, just not exponentially increasing numbers.
State wise there are still a few states with serious death rates, however these numbers lag the case count, as these people came into the hospital 1-2-3 weeks ago.
Case wise (subject to testing of course) a few states are still increasing by serious amounts.
States by rate of increase of death:
States by rate of increase of cases:
4/6/2020
Todays increase was 1243, which is 13% of yesterdays total, and one point less than yesterdays 14%. The 10 day average dropped from 22% to 21%. Based on todays rate the time to double is almost 5-1/2 days, the 10 day average time to double is 3.69. Of course the averages are lagging.
It is slowing, there is no doubt now. What it will do tomorrow…. I don’t know. But based on the decreasing number of reported cases, the death toll will not accelerate. Of course the effect of testing is still the wild card…..
States by relative change in number of deaths:
States by relative change of number of cases:
4-5-2020
After hours reporting pushed yesterdays number up somewhat, although the trend is sustained.
Todays death toll of 1158 is the 5th day of the number being basically flat. Percentage wise this means a decrease to 14%, the lowest to date. (Yes I said that yesterday. see the first sentence.) It brings the 10 day average down 2% to 22%. Based on todays rate the days to double is over 5, and the 10 day average up well over 3. It is slowing. The averages are lagging in decline, of course, and the theoretical 100K mark, although still showing, is now as far as I’m concerned off the books.
This all doesn’t mean it can’t speed up again. Not predicting the future, but increasingly cautiously optimistic.
The State data speak for themselves…. You can scroll down to previous days to see how they are trending.
The following are the States by rate of increase of reported cases. These rates are also lower overall:
And below the States by increased rate of deaths:
4/4/2020 (Note: Late reporting caused the numbers below to increase on 4/5/2020)
Todays count, 1048 is again a big number, but it represents a 14% increase, the lowest we’ve seen since my data began on March 16. It brings the 10 day average down another point, to 24%. This is the 5th day the average has been brought down. the 10 day average days to double has increased to 2.44. For all intents and purposes the virus has stopped accelerating, at least at this point. No telling what will happen tomorrow. But, this pushes the theoretical 100K mark to April 16th.
State wise, the increase in deaths in NJ is still high, PA and CT are accelerating. Case wise PA and LA are hot, IL and VA are on the move as well. CA ticking slightly higher than usual, but nowhere near hot.
Cautiously optimistic.
NOTE: A correction was made to the calculations. The Days to Double was being calculated on the 10 Day Average Rate Increase, then the 10 Day Average of Days to Double off these averages….. an average upon an average. This now doesn’t make much sense to me. Now, the Days to Double is off todays Rate of Increase.
States sorted in order of increase of deaths:
States sorted by rate of increase of cases:
4/3/2020
The number of deaths today, 1322, was the largest in one day to date, and a 22% increase over yesterday, which however brought the 10 day average down a few points to 25%. This pushes the theoretical 100K mark from the 13th to the 15th of April. The average time to double over the last 10 days increased to 2.36 Three data points don’t make a trend, let’s hope for a few more.
State wise NY had a bad day with its largest number of deaths to date, 680 more than half the national number and a 21% increase. California is still the example to follow.
States arranged by increased deaths…..
States arranged by increase cases, effect of testing unknown.
4/2/2020
A slight decrease in deaths today, 970/19% however the 10 day average still holds at 1.29/29% There’s been an increase in late reporting, so the numbers may have to be adjusted after the fact, again.
Days to double unchanged.
CA still holding as the possible example of “how it’s done”. Meanwhile it’s getting bad quickly in LA. Not optimistic. NJ and CT reporting above average increases in deaths. Florida starting to heat up. Way too little too late in that state.
Still looking at 100K on or shortly after April 13.
4/1/2020
Today at 20:00 the number of deaths broke a 1000 for the first time, 1249 to be exact up from 709 for a total of 5099. This is an increase of 32%, a number not seen since March 25th and well above yesterdays 10 day average, which is still holding at 1.29/29% and the 10 day average time to double holds at 2.3 days. Based on the trend, the 100,000 mark could be broken on April 13, less than two weeks from now.
Yesterday we were looking for a silver lining in possible slowing in NY, today they didn’t do too well. Their increased number of deaths is barely below the national average today, although their number of new cases grew less than 10%. No idea how their testing affects that. One state to watch is California. Their clock is about the same as New York’s, but they seem to be doing much better. Some credit their “early adoption” culture which could translate into faster and better execution of social distancing. Something to watch. Other than that, the numbers speak for themselves.
The spreadsheet below is sorted by relative increase in deaths.
The spreadsheet below is sorted by relative increase in cases.
3-31-2020
At 20:00 hours todays death count stood at 3,850 a 709/23% increase over yesterday.
The 10 day average is 29% so while it is percentage wise lower than the numbers we saw
at the end of last week, the number itself is the largest number to date. It is doubling
every 2.39 days, better than it’s 2.29 10 day average but not by much . This virus is still steaming ahead. At the current pace we would reach 100,000 on April 13th
Looking hard for good news in all of this I’ll point out that New York’s case increase, although the largest in the nation, was at “only” 11% in spite of massive testing. They are now doubling every 6.4 days. Also, the death count in NY was at 13.4%, well below the national average. The curve appears to be starting to level there.
The spreadsheets below track the individual states with the highest growth numbers in cases (which is a debatable number due to the variables in testing) and deaths.
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